Autumn/Winter Model Outlook 2025/26

[southamptonsnow2010]

It wouldn’t be the first time an outlier has gained support? Or maybe I’m just being optimistic

[KTtom]

It wouldn’t be the first time an outlier has gained support? Or maybe I’m just being optimistic

...and to be fair, the gfs is still sticking to its guns this morning ... itll have to be well within +300 hrs for me to take seriously tho.

[GarbageBags]

It wouldn’t be the first time an outlier has gained support? Or maybe I’m just being optimistic

...and to be fair, the gfs is still sticking to its guns this morning ... itll have to be well within +300 hrs for me to take seriously tho.

Hopefully It's early days picking up a pattern change

[KTtom]

Looking at the mean pressure chart for the 10th and its a poor chart as you could draw up for winter...sadly things are not going to get any better for the next 2 weeks at least.....a tiny hint that high pressure may build in from the south as we head towards Christmas week.



As mentioned on another forum, for us, and most of Europe to be enduring this wet and windy weather when all background signals point to a blocking cold pattern, something has drastically changed!

[GarbageBags]

I don't think I've ever seen a winter model output as bad as that GFS 06z

[KTtom]

I don't think I've ever seen a winter model output as bad as that GFS 06z

Pffft...check out this mornings...

Forget specifics at this range, just compare the PV to the north west to previous charts posted...as soon as you see the purples over Greenland its a long road to cold....

[GarbageBags]

Short's and Tee's for Christmas eve?

[KTtom]

No charts, but current feeling is that this wet and windy spell is with us for the next 10 days minimum, it does look likely that the AO will slow in time for the last week in December allowing the CHANCE of a more settled spell, or at least longer, dryer spells between weather systems compared to what we are currently seeing!

[KTtom]

No charts, but current feeling is that this wet and windy spell is with us for the next 10 days minimum, it does look likely that the AO will slow in time for the last week in December allowing the CHANCE of a more settled spell, or at least longer, dryer spells between weather systems compared to what we are currently seeing!

Million miles away, and we have seen these charts for the period around now which never materialised, but tonights Boxing day chart has a nice Atlantic block to finally put a halt to the Atrantic train of lows and allow something colder to move down from the north...

[GarbageBags]

No charts, but current feeling is that this wet and windy spell is with us for the next 10 days minimum, it does look likely that the AO will slow in time for the last week in December allowing the CHANCE of a more settled spell, or at least longer, dryer spells between weather systems compared to what we are currently seeing!

Million miles away, and we have seen these charts for the period around now which never materialised, but tonights Boxing day chart has a nice Atlantic block to finally put a halt to the Atrantic train of lows and allow something colder to move down from the north...

would be nice! - shame it's in lala land and this mornings run literally the opposite



Lets hope something happens long term.

[Andee]

No charts, but current feeling is that this wet and windy spell is with us for the next 10 days minimum, it does look likely that the AO will slow in time for the last week in December allowing the CHANCE of a more settled spell, or at least longer, dryer spells between weather systems compared to what we are currently seeing!

Million miles away, and we have seen these charts for the period around now which never materialised, but tonights Boxing day chart has a nice Atlantic block to finally put a halt to the Atrantic train of lows and allow something colder to move down from the north...

would be nice! - shame it's in lala land and this mornings run literally the opposite



Lets hope something happens long term.

This year might be our last ever chance of a white Christmas. We’re moving to Cornwall next year, where the closest thing to snow is a bit of sea foam on a windy day. That said… even living in Yorkshire, I can’t actually remember the last time we had one. So hopes are not exactly sky-high.

[KTtom]

Starting to see some interest in the far, far reaches of the gfs run for late in the month...high pressure looks likely to be over, or very close to the uk. Deep cold to the east...

[GarbageBags]

Million miles away, and we have seen these charts for the period around now which never materialised, but tonights Boxing day chart has a nice Atlantic block to finally put a halt to the Atrantic train of lows and allow something colder to move down from the north...

would be nice! - shame it's in lala land and this mornings run literally the opposite



Lets hope something happens long term.

This year might be our last ever chance of a white Christmas. We’re moving to Cornwall next year, where the closest thing to snow is a bit of sea foam on a windy day. That said… even living in Yorkshire, I can’t actually remember the last time we had one. So hopes are not exactly sky-high.

"PROPER" last white Christmas I remember, with already lying snow (deep and crisp and even!) and falling snow on Christmas day must have been way back in the 90s for me. I remember looking out my bedroom window as a boy one Christmas eve night and there was glistening lying snow in the bright moon light it was magical.

[KTtom]

"PROPER" last white Christmas I remember, with already lying snow (deep and crisp and even!) and falling snow on Christmas day must have been way back in the 90s for me. I remember looking out my bedroom window as a boy one Christmas eve night and there was glistening lying snow in the bright moon light it was magical.

2010 here, remember going for a drive to see the frozen waterfall nearby on boxing day, it was minus 17 which is unprecidented around here.

At least the trend at the moment is dryer for the xmas period which is a bonus at the moment!

[GarbageBags]

I look forward to the "WARMER THAN MORROCO" headlines from the DailyMail.

[southamptonsnow2010]

Ironically most of the headlines that appear on my Facebook are all “-17 ARTIC BLAST TO HIT BRITAIN WITH 20 FEET OF SNOW”……….Alas, I wish

[KTtom]

I think we are at the stage now where we can be confident that high pressure will be taking charge around this time next week, centered just to the north of the UK bringing easterly breeze too the south but nothing especially cold, but at least frost should make a comeback in time for christmas...its then a waiting game to see which direction the high shifts to next, its quite common to see it move north west similsr to gfs shows here which leaves the floodgates open from the north...

[Andee]

Ironically most of the headlines that appear on my Facebook are all “-17 ARTIC BLAST TO HIT BRITAIN WITH 20 FEET OF SNOW”……….Alas, I wish

A return of winter 1962/63?

[southamptonsnow2010]

Ironically most of the headlines that appear on my Facebook are all “-17 ARTIC BLAST TO HIT BRITAIN WITH 20 FEET OF SNOW”……….Alas, I wish

A return of winter 1962/63?

If the Daily Express have anything to do with it we should be 15 feet buried in snow by now! Lol

[KTtom]

All models now show an easterly of some degree by Christmas day, the main question, is, will the high stay in position long enough to draw the very cold air westwards from Russia...

Here is our very own UKMO models take on xmas eve...