Stratospheric Temperature Watch

[GarbageBags]

GFS been showing a significant warming event for around 10 days from now. Not sure how accurate these models are or if it would mean anything! Years ago the thinking was it could upset and weaken the polar vortex in time and leave us more likely to get into a -AO -NAO position because of a wiggly wobbly weak vortex giving us a chance of building highs over Scandi or Greenland with us getting in a trough. Not sure the thinking these days.

[KTtom]

Definatly worth following, there have been times where that warming just circulates the vortex and never knocks it off its perch , so not much to get excited about, however if it puts enough pressure on the vortex it can displace or split into fragments allowing the warming to gain control of the polar region, then if it links to the troposphere its really game on.